When a Candy Bar Became a Confidence Check

In 7th grade, I had a science teacher with one unusual rule.

If you raised your hand to answer a question, he’d pause and ask:

If you said yes and got it wrong, you owed him a Snickers bar.
No reward for being right—just a small, public cost for being wrong.

I don’t remember the subject.
But I do remember the mental math it forced every time:

• Am I sure enough to risk it?
• What if I’m wrong?
• Do I answer—or stay quiet?

At the time, it felt like a game.
But now? I realize it was my first exposure to a pattern I see in leadership all the time:

What Thoughtful Leaders Get Wrong About Certainty

Most leaders don’t stall because they’re unsure.
They stall because they care.

• They want to get it right.
• They want to protect the team.
• They want the outcome to feel airtight before they move.

So they pause.
Add a slide.
Request one more opinion.

It doesn’t look like avoidance.
It looks like responsibility.

But underneath? It’s hesitation—disguised as diligence.
And over time, that hesitation becomes a habit.

The Confidence Threshold: A Tool for When You're Not 100% Sure

That’s why I use a decision tool with leaders I work with—something I call the Confidence Threshold.

It’s not a rule or a formula.
It’s a mindset shift.

When you use it, you:

• Reduce friction
• Regain momentum
• Model clarity—without pretending to be certain

Not every decision needs 100%.
Some need 85%.
Many just need you to move—so everyone else can.

The Science Behind the Strategy

This approach is rooted in a behavioral science principle called satisficing—coined by Nobel laureate Herbert Simon.

Satisficing means making a decision once you’ve reached a sufficient threshold of confidence—rather than chasing perfection.

In complex systems, satisficers:

• Move faster
• Adapt better
• Experience less decision fatigue
• Build more trust through timely action

Perfection is a delay strategy.
Process is what builds credibility.

Your Experiment: The Snicker Sure Test

Next time you’re circling a decision, try this:

🍫 The Snicker Sure Test

1. Write down the decision.​
Name it clearly.

2. Estimate your current confidence.​
Give it a %—no perfection required.

3. Set your threshold.​
What level of confidence would be enough to move?

4. Identify what’s still missing.​
Is it a fact? A conversation? Or just fear?

5. If you’re past the bar—act.​
Decide. Communicate. Move forward.

Because most leaders aren’t waiting for more data.
They’re waiting for permission.

The Bottom Line: You Don’t Need to Be Fully Sure to Lead

You don’t need to be Snicker sure to lead.
You just need a clear threshold—and the courage to move when you’ve reached it.

The Confidence Threshold isn’t a guarantee.
It’s a leadership practice: one that helps you stop chasing certainty and start building clarity.

📣 Pass It On: The Question Every Leader Should Ask

Know someone circling a decision they’ve already done the work to make?
Forward this.

And next time they hesitate, ask:

On LinkedIn? I’d love to hear:
​What’s a decision you delayed—and what would’ve happened if 80% had been enough?